Emirates NBD’s Annual Global Investment Outlook for 2023 Predicts “Good Returns” for Investors Over the Next Decade

Emirates NBD, Dubai’s largest lender by assets, has projected positive returns for investors with diversified asset portfolios over the next decade, as markets rebound from last year’s economic setbacks. Anita Gupta, head of equity strategy at Emirates NBD, stated that emerging market stocks, particularly those from India, China, and the UAE, could offer investors positive returns in the next ten years, while global stocks present a similar opportunity for high yields.

Despite the economic uncertainty caused by global factors such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the increasing supply chain crisis, the UAE and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regions’ economies have bounced back quicker from the pandemic-induced slowdowns. Furthermore, strong investor demand has led to an increase in initial public offerings, and liquidity has been reinforced by high oil prices, particularly benefiting the GCC.

However, Emirates NBD has cautioned that fixed deposits are more suitable for investors with short-term goals considering the current economic climate, while fixed-income assets like bonds would benefit those with a long-term view. This recommendation comes as Satyajit Singh, head of fixed-income strategy, stated that cash is king in the short term. The lender is currently overweight on government treasuries and investment-grade bonds and underweight on high-yield and emerging-market bonds.

Emirates NBD’s projection for the year-end gold price is $1,950, despite the possibility of real rates and geopolitical factors weighing on the precious metal.

Maurice Gravier, chief investment officer at Emirates NBD, has stated that although inflation may decline in 2023, the medium-term projection is relatively uncertain with the current state of globalisation and an ageing population, which will require significant adjustments. Additionally, the world is transitioning from a stable and low-inflation era to a more complex and unstable period marked by geopolitical tensions and short-term uncertainties. Despite this, Mr Gravier believes that investor awareness of these dual risks may mitigate some of the effects of recession and inflation in the future.