The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has marginally raised its growth forecast for 2023 on the back of better economic data from the third quarter of 2022, the easing of inflation and reopening of China. Despite the small increase in the growth forecast, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warns that the recovery must be treated with caution, as the battle against inflation and global economic fragmentation is far from over.
The UK economy is expected to contract 0.6% in 2023, compared to a previous estimated expansion of 0.3%. Conversely, Japan, the world’s third largest economy, is forecast to grow 1.8% in 2023, versus the previous 1.6%. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to grow 4%, up from 3.9% in 2022, with China’s output growing by 5.2%.
Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, is forecasted to grow 2.6% this year, after an 8.7% expansion in 2022, although this will moderate to 3.4% in 2024. As the world’s largest exporter of oil, the kingdom benefitted from the surge in crude prices last year; however, the IMF predicts that oil prices will fall 16% in 2023, while non-fuel commodity prices will fall 6.3% on average.
Advanced economies are likely to experience a more pronounced slowdown, with a decline to 1.2% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, down from 2.7% and 5.2% respectively. The US, the largest of the group, is expected to expand by 1.4% in 2023, down from 2% last year, after seven interest rate rises in 2022 to curb inflation.

عبدالرحمان زمین پیما
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آرمان جعفری
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